I wasn't planning on posting this month, but I had a request due to all the happenings-on, so here goes...

credit to pizzle on 2+2 for the photo

I made a few posts in the past about how retarded it is to keep a lot of money online. Like this one.  And this one.  But it appears that a number of people kept practically their entire net worth online.  Me?  I had $7K in my FT and PS accounts combined.  Why?  Because I listened to my own advice and didn't keep more money online than I needed to!  I wasn't planning on playing Stars until the fall (mostly because of the move), and when 3 tabling 2/4 rush on FT and a $9K deposit limit, why would I need to keep more?  I may not be one of the better regs out there, but I'm certainly not going on a massive downswing more than once a year.  I'm pretty sure I'm the least-affected midstakes reg out there.

I'm not trying to gloat and be a douchebag or anything.  I consider you guys my friends and I genuinely want to see you do well.  Part of being a responsible professional gambler is taking care of your money.  Putting your money at risk with no chance of gain is just -ev.  Luckily, I think we'll eventually see our money again (see below), and you'll get a second chance.  So in the future, treat your money better.  And that concludes my PSA.

In case you're wondering what I think of the cashout situation...

There is definitely a non-zero chance (LDO) we'll never see your money again.  But IN MY OPINION, we'll eventually get our money back.  The odds of us seeing our money is much higher than as reflected in the 20-30% vig some people are looking to pay for an immediate cashout.  Unfortunately, because all the payment processors got shut down, it could take a while before the sites figure out a way for you to get your money back.  I mean really, what do you expect the sites to do when the DOJ shut down all processors?

I'm not basing my "positive" opinion on any insider knowledge.  But what I DO know is the following:
Remember this table from a few months ago?  This was a summary of FT and Party data.

But since Party is tiny, this is basically FT.  Yes- the US is a huge chunk of business.  But it is only 30-40% of revenues/volume (net, hands or players).  If that goes to zero, at the end of the day, FT still has a pretty good business.  They have some of the best software around and they have a patent on Rush, which can be super-addictive.  So maybe instead of having 750mirrion a year in revenues, they get 500. And with all the processor issues over the years, the US business was probably not a huge contributor to their profit margins.  So basically they are still a pretty good multi-billion dollar business (legal issues aside) with higher profit margins than before.  If the US players don't get their money back, most international players will withdraw.  Would they really want to jeopardize that business by stiffing US players?

I think "NO."  I have no idea if there were other shady things going on behind the scenes, like comingling of player assets, etc.  But I haven't seen any huge amounts discussed wrt the seizures.  So I assume FT still has a lot to protect and so I think by the end of the year, they'll find a way to get most of your money.

I'll keep my fingers crossed with the rest of you.

(Oh, and my intention is only to post like once or twice a week until next month).  But my friend Sparky has an awesome guest post on one of his passions...