Thursday, September 22, 2011

Obviously, that hand is villain dependent.  I'm also a big believer in randomizing play to keep opponents off-balanced and your play less predictable.  But here are my general thoughts on the hand:

* A 12% 3bet 6 handed probably means he is 3betting the button from the blinds with almost a 20% range.  66 vs a "top20%" range has 47% equity.  66 is AHEAD of a "top 7%" range plus "top 13%" bluffs with hands too weak to flat.  You are getting 2 to 1 to call and you are IN position.  FOLDING PRE WOULD BE RETARDED!  If you want to fold pre, you might as well just change your sn to "RapeMe."

* So there is some merit in just shoving pre.  I'm not sure if it's *that* +ev - it really depends on what dominating hands you think he calls with.  It's pretty close.  Maybe you do it once in a while for image/shania.

* I prefer to just call the flop.  Sure - there are lots of flops I have to fold on.  But I got 2 to 1 to make the call and 12% of the time, I'm going to have the nuts, and this guy seemed pretty aggressive on the first two streets.  I'm also IN position, so I think there are a reasonable number of post-flop scenarios where I can win the pot (like this one).

* I'm pretty sure on that flop, villain is going to bet 100% of his range.  Wouldn't you?  But this flop rarely hits him.  My equity on the flop is about 55% vs a "top 20%" range, and we know his range is even more full of crap.  I think there is "some" merit in raising and getting it in, but this is really villain-dependent.  Villain in this hand is a relative unknown, so I have no idea what he would do with say KJ here.  If he re-shoves, then raising flop is probably the best play.

* A brick on the turn.  The fact of the matter is, pocket pairs make up a VERY small part of his "20% range."  My equity now is 59% vs his range.  So the question is, do I raise and take it down or let him bluff again?  If he has a made hand, I'm f*cked because there's no way I'm folding.  But that's only like 3-4 percentage points of that 20% range.  Folding turn would be RETARDED - I just told you your equity was 59%, right?  The "standard" play seems to be to let him barrel the river and snap.  Unfortunately, I'm a nit.  Nits don't call 2 streets with less than the near-nuts - I'm assuming he knows this.  I'm also a bit of a calling station (we haven't played many hands, but I'm not sure if he datamines).  The key is, "how likely is he to barrel the river vs a nit?"  His most likely hand is two overcards (6 outs) and unfortunately the turn just gave him 3 more outs, so he has 18% equity even with his un-made hands.  He may have as many as 17 outs.

The break-even would be that he needs to bet about 1/3 of the time WHEN HE MISSES - I'm assuming he bets when he HITS.  His river aggression over a small sample was on the low side, so I did not think he would bet river on another blank - not vs me.  So I shoved the turn, he tanked and folded.  It was only later that I realized it was possible he would have hit the "7" turn and folded the best hand.  Possible - but not something I was counting on. 

These are just *my* thoughts on the hand - I'm curious to see what you think of my analysis.

BTW, I'm using an itouch app called PkrCruncher to do all the calculations.  Check it out.

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