Thursday, June 23, 2011

Merge's Bad Beat Jackpot is now over $460,000.  That's a lot of fiddy cent contributions.  Don't be a noob and make sure you know all the facts:
* you need to use both hole cards, and the losing hand has to be 7777 or better ("qualifying hand")
* don't talk about the BBJ during the hand - you will get disqualified
* Customer Support claimed that every raked pot gets $0.50 taken out for BBJ, but I think for certain limped pots, it is not.

I never thought I'd like the BBJ, but I do.  So here are the top 3 reasons to like the BBJ:

3.  It makes the grind a little more entertaining.  Like whenever I hit a set or have any kind of straight flush draw, I find myself getting a little more excited.

2.  It's a friggin' fish magnet.  It causes decent casual players to play all kinds of suited garbage from all positions.  52s from EP?  Sure!  Why not!  You can't win if you're not in!  So I think the games are softer than without.  There is just a ton more multi-way pots because people want to be part of the BBJ.  And at the end of the day, you pay a little more for BBJ but you have a higher win rate.

1.  It's unequivocally POSITIVE EV for me!  Even without incentives for fishy play.  How so when the casino takes 10% off the top?  It's because as regs, we play most of the hands that are likely to get us the BBJ, without playing as many hands as the fish. Think of it this way... you are about FOUR times as like to make a qualifying BBJ hand with a pocket pair, than you are with a suited connector.  On top of that, a qualifying pocket pair only needs two of the community cards - a suited connector needs three.

So consider 2 players.  Player A plays 15/11 and plays all pps above 77, most (but not all) suited connectors, and some suited gappers. Player B plays 30/11 and plays every pp as well as most suited connecting cards and any two cards above a 7.  Player B will have a slightly higher chance of hitting the BBJ, but he will also be paying almost TWICE as much into the BBJ (all other things being equal about pots won).  So even tho we start off with a -10% baseline, that's more than made up for by all the fish and dopey super-lags making all the excessive BBJ contributions.  The BBJ is even better for full ring regs like me, since a higher percentage of hands we see a flop with (and pay any BBJ premium for) are eligible for the BBJ.  We basically get further subsidized by HU and 6max players.  Ka ching!

Here are some interesting tidbits:
* If you are dealt a pocket pair (42 combos), the chance of you making a qualifying hand is 0.90% (that's almost 1%).  And you only use up 2 community cards.  Regs play all of these.
* For suited broadways (like KQs) (40 combos), the chance of a 4 of a kind is 0.12% and a straight flush is 0.10%.  Regs play all of these.
* If you are dealt a "good" suited connector (54s thru T9s) (24 combos), the chance of you making a qualifying hand is 0.20% (and an extra 0.10% or so for quads, assuming the kicker on the sc is even high enough - not likely).  Regs play many of these.
* If you are dealt a "good" suited 1-gapper (like T8s), the chance of you making a qualifying hand is 0.15% (and possibly an extra 0.05% or so for quads, assuming the kicker on the sc is high enough).  Regs play many of these.
* Odds drop from there, but you still pay the same to play a hand.

There are plenty of ways to figure out probabilities like the above.  I used a itouch app called "PkrCruncher" - it was under $5 and pretty simple to use.  You can do the rest of the math yourself.

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